Evidence guide
How Marine Heatwaves Are Defined
A warm anomaly becomes a marine heatwave only after it is compared with a location- and season-specific baseline and persists long enough to meet a stated event rule.
Reviewed 10 October 2026 · Sources accessed 10 October 2026
Event detection is a threshold calculation
A widely used framework defines a marine heatwave from daily temperature exceeding a seasonally varying 90th-percentile threshold for at least five consecutive days. The climatology period, temporal smoothing, spatial cell and treatment of short gaps must be recorded because they can change event boundaries.
ObservationDaily sea-surface or subsurface temperature with location and quality flagsBaselineSeasonal climatology and percentile threshold calculated over a declared reference periodEvent outputStart, end, duration, maximum intensity, cumulative intensity and category under the chosen method
Teaching threshold example
Day 1below
Day 2above
Day 3above
Day 4above
Day 5above
Day 6above
This diagram is editorial and contains no measured temperatures. Five consecutive “above” labels illustrate the event rule; they do not estimate an event at a real location.
Detection does not measure impact
A temperature event can be mapped from physical data, but bleaching, mortality, range shifts or fishery losses require biological observations matched in space and time. Species differ in acclimatization, life stage and exposure. A surface product may also miss subsurface refuges or heating.
Do not collapse these claims
- Detected: the temperature series crosses the chosen threshold.
- Attributed: models and counterfactual analysis assess how climate drivers changed event likelihood or intensity.
- Impacted: ecological monitoring links exposure to a biological response while considering competing stressors.
Practice workflow
Use the Marine Heatwave Tracker to learn the interface, then replace its illustrative values with a documented dataset. Record product version, coordinates, depth, baseline dates, percentile, event rule and retrieval date before comparing locations.
Sources
Definitions and dataset documentation were checked on 10 October 2026. Threshold choices and product resolution must accompany any reported event.